With the new KESONIA-based pricing model taking effect and credit demand gradually recovering, markets are fixated on the CBK Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled in early December, which will set the tone for borrowing costs into 2026. After a series of rate cuts that have brought the policy rate below 10 percent to support lending, policymakers now balance the need to cement disinflation against the risk of stifling a still-fragile recovery and undermining the objectives of cheaper, more transparent credit.
Commercial banks’ credit officer surveys point to cautious optimism, with lenders reporting stabilising asset quality but still selective risk appetite, especially in sectors exposed to fiscal stress and delayed government payments. The MPC’s December signal on rates, liquidity operations and guidance around the new pricing framework will be a critical reference point for how aggressively banks price loans in the first quarter of 2026—and for whether households and businesses actually feel the “new dawn” of cheaper credit that policymakers have promised.
